public health policy
What is thriving?: Quantifiers
The dime on the photocopier Kahneman won the Nobel for proving people are terrible at knowing what makes them happy. A person who found a dime rates their life higher. Neither person notices the dime. He didn’t conclude happiness was unmeasurable.... Is there a deep state?: Institutional defenders
The data and the briefing On a Saturday morning in February 2020, a career epidemiologist named Nancy Messonnier held a press briefing and said what nobody in the administration wanted her to say: disruption to everyday life may be severe. The stock market dropped 1,000 points.... Where did COVID actually come from?: Biosecurity reformers
The oversight gap The DEFUSE proposal — submitted to DARPA in 2018, not funded — described inserting furin cleavage sites into SARS-related bat coronaviruses. Whether the experiment was conducted anyway is the single most important unanswered question in biosecurity.... Where did COVID actually come from?: The Story
The two sites The Huanan Seafood Market in Wuhan sold raccoon dogs, bamboo rats, and civets stacked in wire cages — stressed, immunocompromised, shedding whatever they carried.... How free can you be inside a system designed for compliance?: Libertarians
She earned $20 a braid Melba braided hair for eleven years. Then Louisiana said she needed 500 hours of cosmetology school — chemical peels, thermal styling, none of it related to what she did. Tuition was five to fifteen grand. She shut down.... Why haven't we eradicated more diseases?: Pharma incentives
The subscription model I spent twelve years in drug development before I switched to policy. I didn’t leave because the science was bad. I left because I finally understood what the science was for. The pharmaceutical industry’s R&D pipeline optimizes for return on investment.... COVID Vaccines: is the cure is worse than the disease (these days)? I don’t get COVID vaccines anymore. I did the first round while we were still in lockdown.
I stand by the choice to get vaccinated then. We didn’t know what was happening, lots of people were dying, good statistics were hard to come by (good interpretations even harder), and the virus hadn’t mutated yet.
It wasn’t great for me: two shots separated by a month; 5.5 days after the first I got shingles (apparently thousands of other people also got at that exact time) and then after the 2nd I was sicker than I’ve almost ever been. It lasted about 2.5 days and then was VOOM instantly cleared up. It was weird and felt unnatural. But perhaps when I later got COVID, it would have been WAY worse, without having gotten the vaccine.
Now, I don’t believe it’s worth it. The experience of having COVID is way less. It’s less deadly. There’s not a chance of herd immunity. And I’ve got friends who have awful long COVID from the vaccine. I haven’t done all the research, and anyone who’s tried to tell me about the research has seemed stilted to one side or another that had me take their interpretations with a huge grain of salt.
I got the 2 shots, 1 booster and then stopped. I wasn’t going to get any because I generally have a poor response to vaccinations, which is why I avoid the flu shot. But my wife encouraged me to since I have a history of asthma....